Cochran County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 13th
Cochran County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 12.8, 13th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Cochran County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 12.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 13th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 95.61 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 4.12 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $112K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cochran County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Cochran County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 4 for fire events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Cochran County ranks #206 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 95.61 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.12 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $112K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.75 / yr | $21K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.85 / yr | $185K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.43 / yr | $198K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.27 / yr | $174K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.40 / yr | $3K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.79 / yr | $11K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 48.72 / yr | $9K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $256K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $0 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cochran County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Severe Storm (3), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cochran County?
Cochran County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 12.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 13th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cochran County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $112K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cochran County compare to other Texas counties?
Cochran County ranks #206 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cochran County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Cochran County since 1970, most often 4 for fire events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cochran County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.