Clay County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 14th
Clay County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 14.3, 14th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Clay County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 14.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 14th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $979K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $477K in expected annual loss and about 73.13 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $293K in expected annual loss and about 9.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Clay County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Clay County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1979, including 7 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Clay County ranks #203 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $979K |
| Drought | Medium | 73.13 / yr | $477K |
| Hail | Low | 9.06 / yr | $293K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.87 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 16.42 / yr | $290K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.94 / yr | $48K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.36 / yr | $317K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $276 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $11K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $45K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 6.47 / yr | $16K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $198K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.46 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Very Low | 51.58 / yr | $14K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Clay County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1979, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (7), Severe Storm (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2011 | Fire | Mcdonald 2 Fire |
| April 2011 | Fire | 148/2332 Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Clay County?
Clay County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 14.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 14th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Clay County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $979K EAL), Drought (Medium, $477K EAL), Hail (Low, $293K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Clay County compare to other Texas counties?
Clay County ranks #203 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Clay County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Clay County since 1979, most often 7 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Clay County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.