Ochiltree County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 35th
Ochiltree County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 34.9, 35th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Ochiltree County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 34.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 35th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 86.97 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $381K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $203K in expected annual loss and about 10.42 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ochiltree County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Ochiltree County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 4 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Ochiltree County ranks #158 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 86.97 / yr | $8M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $381K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 10.42 / yr | $203K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.30 / yr | $259K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.95 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 7.81 / yr | $328K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.73 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.24 / yr | $595K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $119K |
| Lightning | Low | 46.35 / yr | $131K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $15K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.63 / yr | $38K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $1 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ochiltree County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Hurricane (3), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ochiltree County?
Ochiltree County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 34.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 35th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ochiltree County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $8M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $381K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $203K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ochiltree County compare to other Texas counties?
Ochiltree County ranks #158 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ochiltree County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Ochiltree County since 1989, most often 4 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ochiltree County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.