Madison County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 35th
Madison County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 34.9, 35th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Madison County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 34.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 35th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $740K in expected annual loss and about 29.10 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 13K.
Beyond physical exposure, Madison County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Madison County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1987, including 7 for hurricane events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Madison County ranks #157 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 29.10 / yr | $740K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.07 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.95 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | Medium | 61.49 / yr | $254K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.26 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.87 / yr | $82K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $35K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.58 / yr | $196K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.65 / yr | $262K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.30 / yr | $104K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.86 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 2.42 / yr | $16K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $6 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Madison County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1987, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (7), Flood (6), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Madison County?
Madison County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 34.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 35th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Madison County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $740K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $1M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Madison County compare to other Texas counties?
Madison County ranks #157 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Madison County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Madison County since 1987, most often 7 for hurricane events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Madison County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.