Midland County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 81th
Midland County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 81.2, 81th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $49M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Midland County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 81.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 81st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 3.90 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $874K in expected annual loss and about 5.58 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $49M in expected annual loss for a population of 170K.
Beyond physical exposure, Midland County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Midland County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including 9 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Midland County ranks #48 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 3.90 / yr | $8M |
| Winter Weather | High | 5.58 / yr | $874K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | High | 74.79 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | High | 0.37 / yr | $9M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 4.32 / yr | $22M |
| Lightning | Medium | 44.44 / yr | $583K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.58 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 6.11 / yr | $818K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.42 / yr | $794K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $29K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $141K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.10 / yr | $37K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $2 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Midland County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1992, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (9), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 2011 | Fire | Ceed Fire |
| April 2011 | Fire | Hickman Fire |
| April 2011 | Fire | Bates Field Fire |
| March 2009 | Fire | Greenwood Fire |
| May 2008 | Fire | Price Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Midland County?
Midland County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 81.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 81th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Midland County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $8M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $874K EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Midland County compare to other Texas counties?
Midland County ranks #48 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Midland County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Midland County since 1992, most often 9 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Midland County's $49M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.