Ellis County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 82th
Ellis County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 81.6, 82th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $47M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Ellis County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 81.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 82nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Ellis County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 7.86 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 16.58 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.79 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $47M in expected annual loss for a population of 192K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ellis County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Ellis County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 6 for severe storm events and 6 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Ellis County ranks #46 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 7.86 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 16.58 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.79 / yr | $7M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.88 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | High | 55.07 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $805K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.04 / yr | $24M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 3.47 / yr | $106K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.02 / yr | $126K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $92K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $303K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.90 / yr | $447K |
| Drought | Low | 28.59 / yr | $81K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $640 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ellis County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Fire (6), Hurricane (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Fire | County Line Fire |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ellis County?
Ellis County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 81.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 82th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ellis County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $4M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ellis County compare to other Texas counties?
Ellis County ranks #46 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ellis County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Ellis County since 1989, most often 6 for severe storm events and 6 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ellis County's $47M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.