Bastrop County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 81th
Bastrop County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 81.2, 81th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $43M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Bastrop County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 81.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 81st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.48 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $27M in expected annual loss and about 2.50 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $43M in expected annual loss for a population of 97K.
Beyond physical exposure, Bastrop County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Bastrop County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1991, including 13 for fire events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in April 2023.
Among 254 Texas counties, Bastrop County ranks #47 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.48 / yr | $7M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.50 / yr | $27M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.06 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.53 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 3.11 / yr | $199K |
| Drought | Medium | 53.75 / yr | $708K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.63 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $189K |
| Lightning | Medium | 51.84 / yr | $481K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.48 / yr | $872K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $279K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.62 / yr | $116K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $778 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $30K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bastrop County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1991, most recently Severe Winter Storm in April 2023. Most frequent causes: Fire (13), Flood (5), Hurricane (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| November 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| October 2015 | Fire | Hidden Pines Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bastrop County?
Bastrop County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 81.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 81th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bastrop County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $7M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $27M EAL), Hail (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bastrop County compare to other Texas counties?
Bastrop County ranks #47 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bastrop County had?
FEMA records 31 federal disaster declarations for Bastrop County since 1991, most often 13 for fire events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in April 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bastrop County's $43M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.