Nacogdoches County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 81th
Nacogdoches County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 80.7, 81th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $32M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Nacogdoches County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 80.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 81st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 3.85 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 0.68 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 20.32 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $32M in expected annual loss for a population of 64K.
Beyond physical exposure, Nacogdoches County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Nacogdoches County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 9 for hurricane events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Nacogdoches County ranks #50 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 3.85 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | High | 0.68 / yr | $9M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 20.32 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | High | 64.66 / yr | $650K |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.08 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.71 / yr | $371K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $265K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 2.47 / yr | $126K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.61 / yr | $12M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.38 / yr | $4K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.63 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 22.00 / yr | $290K |
| Hail | Low | 3.53 / yr | $243K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $190K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Nacogdoches County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Fire (5), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Nacogdoches County?
Nacogdoches County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 80.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 81th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Nacogdoches County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Tornado (High, $9M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Nacogdoches County compare to other Texas counties?
Nacogdoches County ranks #50 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Nacogdoches County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Nacogdoches County since 1975, most often 9 for hurricane events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Nacogdoches County's $32M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.