Smith County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 84th
Smith County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.2, 84th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $43M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Smith County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 84.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 84th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 18.74 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 59.50 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.84 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $43M in expected annual loss for a population of 233K.
Beyond physical exposure, Smith County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
History supports the rating: Smith County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 8 for hurricane events and 6 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Smith County ranks #38 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.74 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | High | 59.50 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.84 / yr | $7M |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.50 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 3.42 / yr | $282K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.29 / yr | $605K |
| Hail | Medium | 4.48 / yr | $996K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.00 / yr | $21M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $346K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $832K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.31 / yr | $7K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $637K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.73 / yr | $930K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 22.38 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Smith County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Fire (6), Severe Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| November 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 33 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Smith County?
Smith County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 84th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Smith County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $6M EAL), Lightning (High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Smith County compare to other Texas counties?
Smith County ranks #38 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Smith County had?
FEMA records 33 federal disaster declarations for Smith County since 1965, most often 8 for hurricane events and 6 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Smith County's $43M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.