Pecos County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 25th
Pecos County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 25.1, 25th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Pecos County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 25.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 25th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Pecos County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 78.66 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $557K in expected annual loss and about 2.05 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $319K in expected annual loss and about 46.63 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pecos County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Pecos County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 5 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Pecos County ranks #182 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 78.66 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.05 / yr | $557K |
| Lightning | Medium | 46.63 / yr | $319K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $81K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 6.26 / yr | $404K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.58 / yr | $59K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.20 / yr | $75K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.59 / yr | $292K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $10K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 1.03 / yr | $265K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 2.86 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $21K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $138K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.54 / yr | $51 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pecos County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Hurricane (3), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pecos County?
Pecos County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 25.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 25th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pecos County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Hail (Medium, $557K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $319K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pecos County compare to other Texas counties?
Pecos County ranks #182 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pecos County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Pecos County since 1989, most often 5 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pecos County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.