Howard County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 55th
Howard County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 54.8, 55th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Howard County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 54.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 55th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 4.63 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 64.88 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $959K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 35K.
Beyond physical exposure, Howard County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Howard County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 9 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Howard County ranks #127 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 4.63 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | High | 64.88 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $959K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.16 / yr | $171K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.50 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.92 / yr | $638K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 6.00 / yr | $395K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.25 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.58 / yr | $531K |
| Lightning | Low | 47.93 / yr | $112K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $15K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $18K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $27K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $52 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Howard County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (9), Hurricane (3), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2011 | Fire | Boyken Road Fire |
| May 2011 | Fire | Matt Loop Fire |
| March 2008 | Fire | Kentwood Fire |
| March 2008 | Fire | Silver Heels Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Howard County?
Howard County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 54.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 55th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Howard County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $3M EAL), Drought (High, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $959K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Howard County compare to other Texas counties?
Howard County ranks #127 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Howard County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Howard County since 1989, most often 9 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Howard County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.