Coleman County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 21th
Coleman County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 20.6, 21th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Coleman County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 20.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 21st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $599K in expected annual loss and about 5.27 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $248K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $814K in expected annual loss and about 1.76 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Coleman County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Coleman County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1991, including 4 for flood events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Coleman County ranks #190 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 5.27 / yr | $599K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $248K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.76 / yr | $814K |
| Drought | Medium | 43.63 / yr | $544K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.58 / yr | $34K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $19K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.72 / yr | $535K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 9.32 / yr | $124K |
| Lightning | Low | 46.24 / yr | $75K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $180K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.96 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $26 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $3K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Coleman County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1991, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Fire (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Coleman County?
Coleman County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 20.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 21th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Coleman County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $599K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $248K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $814K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Coleman County compare to other Texas counties?
Coleman County ranks #190 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Coleman County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Coleman County since 1991, most often 4 for flood events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Coleman County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.