Garza County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 20th
Garza County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 20.0, 20th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Garza County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 20.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 20th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Garza County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 74.82 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $388K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $542K in expected annual loss and about 4.90 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Garza County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Garza County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including 4 for fire events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Garza County ranks #192 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 74.82 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $388K |
| Hail | Medium | 4.90 / yr | $542K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.12 / yr | $287K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.57 / yr | $535K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.42 / yr | $24K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.32 / yr | $17K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.95 / yr | $149K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.00 / yr | $38K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 48.72 / yr | $15K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $9 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.75 / yr | $353K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Garza County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1992, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Hurricane (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2010 | Hurricane | Hurricane Alex |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Garza County?
Garza County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 20.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 20th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Garza County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $388K EAL), Hail (Medium, $542K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Garza County compare to other Texas counties?
Garza County ranks #192 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Garza County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Garza County since 1992, most often 4 for fire events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Garza County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.