Brewster County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 21th
Brewster County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 21.1, 21th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Brewster County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 21.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 21st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Brewster County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $995K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $605K in expected annual loss and about 116.32 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $495K in expected annual loss and about 53.02 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Brewster County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Brewster County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1998, including 5 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Brewster County ranks #189 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $995K |
| Drought | Medium | 116.32 / yr | $605K |
| Lightning | Medium | 53.02 / yr | $495K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.10 / yr | $587K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.91 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $399 |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.09 / yr | $60K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 3.04 / yr | $42K |
| Hail | Low | 0.76 / yr | $128K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 2.29 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $11K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $46K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.42 / yr | $129K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.31 / yr | $98K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $44K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Brewster County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1998, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 2011 | Fire | Gage Holland Fire |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Brewster County?
Brewster County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 21.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 21th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Brewster County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $995K EAL), Drought (Medium, $605K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $495K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Brewster County compare to other Texas counties?
Brewster County ranks #189 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Brewster County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Brewster County since 1998, most often 5 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Brewster County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.