Armstrong County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 20th
Armstrong County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 20.0, 20th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Armstrong County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 20.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 20th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 78.98 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $219K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $552K in expected annual loss and about 8.75 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 2K.
Beyond physical exposure, Armstrong County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Armstrong County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1998, including 5 for fire events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was 8 Ball Fire (fire), declared in February 2026.
Among 254 Texas counties, Armstrong County ranks #191 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 78.98 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $219K |
| Hail | Low | 8.75 / yr | $552K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.89 / yr | $35K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.89 / yr | $296K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.44 / yr | $131K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.43 / yr | $6K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.95 / yr | $16K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $23 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 2.05 / yr | $51K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 50.63 / yr | $7K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $248K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Armstrong County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1998, most recently 8 Ball Fire in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Severe Ice Storm (3), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Fire | 8 Ball Fire |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Armstrong County?
Armstrong County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 20.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 20th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Armstrong County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $5M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $219K EAL), Hail (Low, $552K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Armstrong County compare to other Texas counties?
Armstrong County ranks #191 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Armstrong County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Armstrong County since 1998, most often 5 for fire events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was 8 Ball Fire, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Armstrong County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.