Cottle County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 12th
Cottle County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 12.5, 12th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Cottle County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 12.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 12th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 119.44 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $60K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $218K in expected annual loss and about 5.74 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 1K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cottle County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Cottle County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 5 for severe storm events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Cottle County ranks #208 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 119.44 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $60K |
| Hail | Low | 5.74 / yr | $218K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.31 / yr | $192K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.40 / yr | $19K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $131 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.55 / yr | $112K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.79 / yr | $15K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 6.79 / yr | $6K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.32 / yr | $10K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 48.35 / yr | $8K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $181K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cottle County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Fire (5), Hurricane (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2010 | Hurricane | Hurricane Alex |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cottle County?
Cottle County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 12.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 12th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cottle County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $60K EAL), Hail (Low, $218K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cottle County compare to other Texas counties?
Cottle County ranks #208 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cottle County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Cottle County since 1990, most often 5 for severe storm events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cottle County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.