Ward County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 15th
Ward County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 15.4, 15th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Ward County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 15.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 15th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $182K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $371K in expected annual loss and about 2.65 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $503K in expected annual loss and about 0.94 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ward County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Ward County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1998, including 3 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Ward County ranks #201 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $182K |
| Hail | Low | 2.65 / yr | $371K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.94 / yr | $503K |
| Drought | Low | 73.80 / yr | $175K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.35 / yr | $58K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.53 / yr | $150K |
| Lightning | Low | 43.74 / yr | $94K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.34 / yr | $30K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.23 / yr | $275K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $22K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.43 / yr | $137K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $0 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ward County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1998, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (3), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 1999 | Fire | Extreme Fire Hazards |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ward County?
Ward County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 15.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 15th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ward County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $182K EAL), Hail (Low, $371K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $503K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ward County compare to other Texas counties?
Ward County ranks #201 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ward County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for Ward County since 1998, most often 3 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ward County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.