Warren County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 63th
Warren County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 63.5, 63th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Warren County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 63.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 63rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.34 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $882K in expected annual loss and about 19.18 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 41K.
Beyond physical exposure, Warren County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Warren County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Warren County ranks #35 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | Medium | 0.34 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Medium | 19.18 / yr | $882K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.21 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.63 / yr | $170K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.78 / yr | $868K |
| Lightning | Medium | 60.32 / yr | $279K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.82 / yr | $6M |
| Hail | Low | 3.71 / yr | $266K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $84K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.64 / yr | $61K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.42 / yr | $222 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.89 / yr | $53K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Warren County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (4), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| April 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Warren County?
Warren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 63.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 63th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Warren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL), Drought (Medium, $882K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Warren County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Warren County ranks #35 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Warren County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Warren County since 1973, most often 10 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Warren County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.