Henderson County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 63th
Henderson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 63.1, 63th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $19M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Henderson County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 63.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 63rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 1.68 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.36 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $19M in expected annual loss for a population of 28K.
Beyond physical exposure, Henderson County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Henderson County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 16 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Henderson County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $7M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.68 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.36 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.37 / yr | $12K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.56 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 12.32 / yr | $766K |
| Lightning | Medium | 58.83 / yr | $279K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $85K |
| Drought | Low | 7.73 / yr | $58K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.67 / yr | $41K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 6.00 / yr | $16K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.93 / yr | $16K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Henderson County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (16), Tornado (4), Winter Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| March 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| May 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Henderson County?
Henderson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 63.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 63th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Henderson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $7M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Henderson County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Henderson County ranks #37 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Henderson County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Henderson County since 1974, most often 16 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Henderson County's $19M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.