Henderson County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN

Low

Composite Risk Score

63.1

National percentile: 63th

Henderson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 63.1, 63th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $19M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Henderson County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 63.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 63rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 1.68 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.36 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $19M in expected annual loss for a population of 28K.

Beyond physical exposure, Henderson County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

History supports the rating: Henderson County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 16 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.

Among 95 Tennessee counties, Henderson County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $19M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Medium Capacity to recover
Population 28K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $7M/yr
Medium $4M/yr
Medium $3M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Earthquake Medium 0.01 / yr$7M
Cold Wave Medium 1.68 / yr$4M
Tornado Medium 0.36 / yr$3M
Landslide Low 1.37 / yr$12K
Strong Wind Medium 2.56 / yr$1M
Heat Wave Low 12.32 / yr$766K
Lightning Medium 58.83 / yr$279K
Hurricane Very Low 0.03 / yr$85K
Drought Low 7.73 / yr$58K
Ice Storm Low 0.67 / yr$41K
Riverine Flood Very Low 1.00 / yr$3M
Winter Weather Very Low 6.00 / yr$16K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$6K
Hail Very Low 2.93 / yr$16K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Henderson County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (16), Tornado (4), Winter Storm (3).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
February 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
June 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
April 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
May 2023Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado
March 2023Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
January 2022TornadoSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes
May 2021TornadoSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
July 2020Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic

Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Henderson County?

Henderson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 63.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 63th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Henderson County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $7M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Henderson County compare to other Tennessee counties?

Henderson County ranks #37 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Henderson County had?

FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Henderson County since 1974, most often 16 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Henderson County's $19M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.