Davidson County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 97th
Davidson County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 97.2, 97th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $262M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Davidson County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 97.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 97th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at High risk — $58M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $160M in expected annual loss and about 3.79 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 0.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $262M in expected annual loss for a population of 715K.
Beyond physical exposure, Davidson County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Davidson County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 14 for severe storm events and 5 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Davidson County ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | High | 0.00 / yr | $58M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.79 / yr | $160M |
| Tornado | High | 0.43 / yr | $24M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.97 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.79 / yr | $6M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.21 / yr | $8M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.30 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 5.47 / yr | $233K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.69 / yr | $417K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.83 / yr | $5K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $72K |
| Lightning | Low | 58.62 / yr | $271K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $107K |
| Drought | Very Low | 5.07 / yr | $16K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Davidson County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Tornado (5), Winter Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| December 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| March 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| May 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2021 | Other | Explosion |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Davidson County?
Davidson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.2 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 97th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Davidson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (High, $58M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $160M EAL), Tornado (High, $24M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Davidson County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Davidson County ranks #2 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Davidson County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Davidson County since 1974, most often 14 for severe storm events and 5 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Davidson County's $262M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.