Haywood County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Haywood County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 64.7, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Haywood County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 64.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.89 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $587K in expected annual loss and about 15.79 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 18K.
Beyond physical exposure, Haywood County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
History supports the rating: Haywood County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1994, including 15 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Haywood County ranks #33 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $9M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.89 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 15.79 / yr | $587K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.38 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 8.52 / yr | $268K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.77 / yr | $108K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $94K |
| Lightning | Low | 58.11 / yr | $175K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 5.84 / yr | $32K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $396 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.46 / yr | $196K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.17 / yr | $41K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Haywood County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1994, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Winter Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Haywood County?
Haywood County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 64.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Haywood County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $9M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $587K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Haywood County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Haywood County ranks #33 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Haywood County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Haywood County since 1994, most often 15 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Haywood County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.