Carter County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 63th
Carter County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 63.2, 63th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Carter County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 63.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 63rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $50K in expected annual loss and about 1.02 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 2.87 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 0.96 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 56K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carter County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Carter County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 5 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Carter County ranks #36 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.02 / yr | $50K |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.87 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.96 / yr | $12M |
| Lightning | Medium | 50.58 / yr | $352K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $568K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $61K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.48 / yr | $89K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.34 / yr | $772K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $61K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.08 / yr | $735K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 13.23 / yr | $27K |
| Drought | Low | 20.37 / yr | $23K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.67 / yr | $59K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $21K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carter County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (4), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| October 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carter County?
Carter County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 63.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 63th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carter County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $50K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $12M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carter County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Carter County ranks #36 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carter County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Carter County since 1973, most often 5 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carter County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.