Coffee County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 64th
Coffee County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 63.5, 64th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $23M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Coffee County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 63.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 64th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.36 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 1.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $23M in expected annual loss for a population of 58K.
Beyond physical exposure, Coffee County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Coffee County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 6 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Coffee County ranks #34 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.36 / yr | $6M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.11 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 5.21 / yr | $180K |
| Drought | Medium | 21.90 / yr | $501K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.91 / yr | $933K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.71 / yr | $128K |
| Hail | Low | 3.82 / yr | $340K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.29 / yr | $8M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $85K |
| Lightning | Low | 60.27 / yr | $236K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.47 / yr | $193K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $167 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Coffee County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Flood (5), Winter Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| March 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Coffee County?
Coffee County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 63.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 64th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Coffee County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $3M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $6M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Coffee County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Coffee County ranks #34 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Coffee County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Coffee County since 1973, most often 6 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Coffee County's $23M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.