Zapata County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 31th
Zapata County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 31.4, 31th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Zapata County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 31.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 31st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 2.21 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $99K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $212K in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 14K.
Beyond physical exposure, Zapata County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Zapata County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 7 for hurricane events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Zapata County ranks #166 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 2.21 / yr | $4M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $99K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.07 / yr | $212K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.95 / yr | $138K |
| Hail | Low | 0.55 / yr | $88K |
| Drought | Low | 79.45 / yr | $19K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.14 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.68 / yr | $7K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $75K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $30 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 34.57 / yr | $9K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $17K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Zapata County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (7), Fire (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2010 | Hurricane | Hurricane Alex |
| June 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | La Perla Fire |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Zapata County?
Zapata County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 31.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 31th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Zapata County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $4M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $99K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $212K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Zapata County compare to other Texas counties?
Zapata County ranks #166 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Zapata County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Zapata County since 1967, most often 7 for hurricane events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Zapata County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.