Sherman County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 30th
Sherman County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 30.3, 30th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Sherman County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 30.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 30th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Sherman County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 123.87 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 2.95 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $132K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.
Beyond physical exposure, Sherman County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Sherman County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 3 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Sherman County ranks #168 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 123.87 / yr | $7M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.95 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $132K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 11.26 / yr | $80K |
| Hail | Low | 6.21 / yr | $272K |
| Lightning | Low | 44.76 / yr | $108K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $17K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $230K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $26K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 2.64 / yr | $76K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.05 / yr | $7K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $252K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $1 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Sherman County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (3), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 1999 | Fire | Extreme Fire Hazards |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sherman County?
Sherman County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 30.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 30th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sherman County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $7M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $132K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sherman County compare to other Texas counties?
Sherman County ranks #168 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Sherman County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Sherman County since 1989, most often 3 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sherman County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.