Baylor County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 17th
Baylor County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 17.5, 17th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Baylor County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 17.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 17th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Baylor County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 123.29 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $74K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $266K in expected annual loss and about 7.38 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.
Beyond physical exposure, Baylor County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Baylor County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1979, including 4 for severe storm events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Baylor County ranks #199 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 123.29 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $74K |
| Hail | Low | 7.38 / yr | $266K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.75 / yr | $492K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $487 |
| Tornado | Low | 0.62 / yr | $407K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 13.74 / yr | $99K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $10K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.66 / yr | $18K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $18K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $112K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.46 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 6.26 / yr | $6K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 49.28 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Baylor County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1979, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Fire (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Baylor County?
Baylor County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 17.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 17th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Baylor County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $74K EAL), Hail (Low, $266K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Baylor County compare to other Texas counties?
Baylor County ranks #199 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Baylor County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Baylor County since 1979, most often 4 for severe storm events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Baylor County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.