Trinity County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 61th
Trinity County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 60.6, 61th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Trinity County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 60.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 61st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.84 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $885K in expected annual loss and about 2.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 14K.
Beyond physical exposure, Trinity County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Trinity County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 8 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Trinity County ranks #108 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 0.84 / yr | $5M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.08 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.06 / yr | $885K |
| Lightning | High | 66.62 / yr | $495K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $104K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.85 / yr | $110K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.41 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.68 / yr | $264K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.89 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 1.74 / yr | $20K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $40K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $102 |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.39 / yr | $48K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 27.95 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Trinity County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Flood (5), Severe Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Trinity County?
Trinity County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 60.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 61th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Trinity County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $5M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $2M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $885K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Trinity County compare to other Texas counties?
Trinity County ranks #108 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Trinity County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Trinity County since 1989, most often 8 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Trinity County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.