Trinity County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX

Low

Composite Risk Score

60.6

National percentile: 61th

Trinity County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 60.6, 61th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Trinity County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 60.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 61st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.84 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $885K in expected annual loss and about 2.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 14K.

Beyond physical exposure, Trinity County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

History supports the rating: Trinity County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 8 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.

Among 254 Texas counties, Trinity County ranks #108 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $13M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 14K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $5M/yr
Medium $2M/yr
Medium $885K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Cold Wave High 0.84 / yr$5M
Hurricane Medium 0.08 / yr$2M
Strong Wind Medium 2.06 / yr$885K
Lightning High 66.62 / yr$495K
Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr$104K
Ice Storm Medium 0.85 / yr$110K
Tornado Low 0.41 / yr$1M
Heat Wave Low 11.68 / yr$264K
Riverine Flood Low 0.89 / yr$3M
Winter Weather Low 1.74 / yr$20K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$40K
Landslide Very Low 0.11 / yr$102
Hail Very Low 2.39 / yr$48K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Drought Very Low 27.95 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Trinity County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Flood (5), Severe Storm (5).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
July 2024HurricaneHurricane Beryl
May 2024FloodSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storms
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storm
August 2020HurricaneTropical Storms Marco and Laura
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2016FloodSevere Storms and Flooding
February 2016Severe StormSevere Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
May 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Trinity County?

Trinity County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 60.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 61th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Trinity County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $5M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $2M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $885K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Trinity County compare to other Texas counties?

Trinity County ranks #108 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Trinity County had?

FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Trinity County since 1989, most often 8 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Trinity County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.