Atascosa County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 61th
Atascosa County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 60.7, 61th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Atascosa County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 60.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 61st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 82.14 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $934K in expected annual loss and about 2.10 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 49K.
Beyond physical exposure, Atascosa County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Atascosa County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 6 for hurricane events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Duke Fire (fire), declared in March 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Atascosa County ranks #106 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 82.14 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.10 / yr | $934K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.37 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.11 / yr | $995K |
| Lightning | Medium | 43.43 / yr | $460K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $166K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $278K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.57 / yr | $6M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 1.63 / yr | $50K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.76 / yr | $369K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.42 / yr | $535K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.16 / yr | $28K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $15K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $13 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Atascosa County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Duke Fire in March 2025. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Severe Storm (4), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | Fire | Duke Fire |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| June 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Atascosa County?
Atascosa County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 60.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 61th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Atascosa County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $1M EAL), Hail (Medium, $934K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Atascosa County compare to other Texas counties?
Atascosa County ranks #106 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Atascosa County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Atascosa County since 1967, most often 6 for hurricane events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Duke Fire, declared in March 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Atascosa County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.