Gray County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 60th
Gray County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 59.9, 60th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Gray County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 59.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 60th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 74.77 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 8.64 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 21K.
Beyond physical exposure, Gray County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Gray County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 5 for fire events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Rest Area Fire (fire), declared in March 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Gray County ranks #109 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 74.77 / yr | $4M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 8.64 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 9.79 / yr | $350K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.44 / yr | $326K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.87 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.42 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.13 / yr | $984K |
| Lightning | Medium | 48.78 / yr | $503K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $189K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $10K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.53 / yr | $73K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $5 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Gray County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Rest Area Fire in March 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Severe Ice Storm (3), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | Fire | Rest Area Fire |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2018 | Fire | Mcclellan Fire |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Gray County?
Gray County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 59.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 60th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Gray County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $4M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $2M EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Gray County compare to other Texas counties?
Gray County ranks #109 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Gray County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Gray County since 1970, most often 5 for fire events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Rest Area Fire, declared in March 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Gray County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.