Taylor County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 84th
Taylor County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 83.8, 84th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $54M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Taylor County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 83.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 84th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 5.65 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $634K in expected annual loss and about 5.84 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $54M in expected annual loss for a population of 143K.
Beyond physical exposure, Taylor County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Taylor County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1981, including 7 for fire events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Mesquite Heat Fire (fire), declared in May 2022.
Among 254 Texas counties, Taylor County ranks #40 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Very High | 5.65 / yr | $19M |
| Winter Weather | High | 5.84 / yr | $634K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | High | 47.27 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.00 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.25 / yr | $23M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.67 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 41.18 / yr | $638K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.11 / yr | $873K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.52 / yr | $136K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.05 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $70K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $145K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $132 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Taylor County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1981, most recently Mesquite Heat Fire in May 2022. Most frequent causes: Fire (7), Severe Storm (5), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2022 | Fire | Mesquite Heat Fire |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2009 | Fire | Tuscola Fire |
| February 2009 | Fire | Rhodes Ranch Fire |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| October 2007 | Severe Storm | Tropical Storm Erin |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Taylor County?
Taylor County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 83.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 84th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Taylor County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Very High, $19M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $634K EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Taylor County compare to other Texas counties?
Taylor County ranks #40 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Taylor County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Taylor County since 1981, most often 7 for fire events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Mesquite Heat Fire, declared in May 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Taylor County's $54M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.