Ector County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 83th
Ector County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 82.8, 83th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $46M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Ector County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 82.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 83rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 3.86 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $981K in expected annual loss and about 5.74 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $46M in expected annual loss for a population of 165K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ector County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Ector County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 6 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Ector County ranks #42 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 3.86 / yr | $13M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 5.74 / yr | $981K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.51 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.11 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 43.49 / yr | $914K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.36 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.93 / yr | $20M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.42 / yr | $291K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.58 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Low | 71.58 / yr | $251K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $152K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $22K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $2 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ector County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (6), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2011 | Fire | Pleasant Farms Fire |
| April 2011 | Fire | Bates Field Fire |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| February 2008 | Fire | South Odessa Fire |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ector County?
Ector County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 82.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 83th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ector County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $13M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $981K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ector County compare to other Texas counties?
Ector County ranks #42 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ector County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Ector County since 1989, most often 6 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ector County's $46M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.