Refugio County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 37th
Refugio County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 37.5, 37th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Refugio County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 37.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 37th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Refugio County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.14 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $798K in expected annual loss and about 59.11 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 2.67 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Refugio County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Refugio County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 15 for hurricane events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Refugio County ranks #152 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.14 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 59.11 / yr | $798K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.67 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $46K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 3.69 / yr | $20K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.14 / yr | $164K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.34 / yr | $338K |
| Lightning | Low | 51.90 / yr | $61K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.39 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.35 / yr | $8K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.07 / yr | $32K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.81 / yr | $44K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.97 / yr | $4K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $5 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Refugio County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (15), Flood (4), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| June 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Refugio County?
Refugio County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 37.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 37th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Refugio County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL), Drought (Medium, $798K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Refugio County compare to other Texas counties?
Refugio County ranks #152 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Refugio County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Refugio County since 1967, most often 15 for hurricane events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Refugio County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.