Nolan County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 38th
Nolan County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 37.8, 38th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Nolan County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 37.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 38th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Nolan County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 66.41 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $518K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $802K in expected annual loss and about 5.29 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, Nolan County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Nolan County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1980, including 7 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Nolan County ranks #151 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 66.41 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $518K |
| Hail | Medium | 5.29 / yr | $802K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.04 / yr | $824K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 5.89 / yr | $76K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.61 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.05 / yr | $485K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 9.58 / yr | $168K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.96 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Lightning | Low | 48.05 / yr | $57K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $12K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $14K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $29 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Nolan County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1980, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (7), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| July 2011 | Fire | Nolan County Fire Complex |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2011 | Fire | White Hat Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Nolan County?
Nolan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 37.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 38th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Nolan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $518K EAL), Hail (Medium, $802K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Nolan County compare to other Texas counties?
Nolan County ranks #151 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Nolan County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Nolan County since 1980, most often 7 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Nolan County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.