Bosque County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 37th
Bosque County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 36.9, 37th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Bosque County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 36.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 37th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $982K in expected annual loss and about 50.46 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $531K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.75 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 18K.
Beyond physical exposure, Bosque County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Bosque County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 6 for fire events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Bosque County ranks #154 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 50.46 / yr | $982K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $531K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.75 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 6.25 / yr | $298K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 13.84 / yr | $391K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $84K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.74 / yr | $667K |
| Drought | Low | 60.60 / yr | $65K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.39 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.87 / yr | $17K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $127 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.53 / yr | $166K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 3.32 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bosque County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (6), Severe Storm (6), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2022 | Fire | Hard Castle Fire |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| November 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bosque County?
Bosque County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 36.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 37th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bosque County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $982K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $531K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bosque County compare to other Texas counties?
Bosque County ranks #154 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bosque County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Bosque County since 1989, most often 6 for fire events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bosque County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.