Polk County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 76th
Polk County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.6, 76th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $24M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Polk County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 75.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 76th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Polk County's expected losses come from lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 70.27 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.11 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.71 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $24M in expected annual loss for a population of 50K.
Beyond physical exposure, Polk County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Polk County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 9 for hurricane events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Polk County ranks #66 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 70.27 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.11 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.71 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.74 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.63 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.63 / yr | $910K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.61 / yr | $213K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $192K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.04 / yr | $7M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.22 / yr | $902 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 1.53 / yr | $36K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $86K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.24 / yr | $50K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 19.74 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Polk County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Flood (7), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Polk County?
Polk County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 76th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Polk County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $5M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Polk County compare to other Texas counties?
Polk County ranks #66 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Polk County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Polk County since 1973, most often 9 for hurricane events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Polk County's $24M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.