Val Verde County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 76th
Val Verde County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 76.1, 76th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $24M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Val Verde County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 76.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 76th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $20M in expected annual loss and about 3.89 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $459K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $169K in expected annual loss and about 2.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $24M in expected annual loss for a population of 47K.
Beyond physical exposure, Val Verde County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Val Verde County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 4 for fire events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Val Verde County ranks #65 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.89 / yr | $20M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $459K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 2.89 / yr | $169K |
| Hail | Medium | 1.03 / yr | $650K |
| Lightning | Medium | 41.03 / yr | $335K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.53 / yr | $587K |
| Drought | Low | 147.02 / yr | $225K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $104K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.58 / yr | $1K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.34 / yr | $597K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.47 / yr | $447K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $23K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.27 / yr | $106K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Val Verde County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Hurricane (4), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2010 | Hurricane | Hurricane Alex |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Val Verde County?
Val Verde County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 76.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 76th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Val Verde County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $20M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $459K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $169K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Val Verde County compare to other Texas counties?
Val Verde County ranks #65 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Val Verde County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Val Verde County since 1993, most often 4 for fire events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Val Verde County's $24M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.