Navarro County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 75th
Navarro County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.3, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $27M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Navarro County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 75.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Navarro County's expected losses come from tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 0.85 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.23 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 15.84 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $27M in expected annual loss for a population of 53K.
Beyond physical exposure, Navarro County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Navarro County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 8 for severe storm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Navarro County ranks #68 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.85 / yr | $8M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.23 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 15.84 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.63 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 5.83 / yr | $801K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $400K |
| Lightning | Medium | 54.86 / yr | $561K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.92 / yr | $296K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.07 / yr | $9M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $183K |
| Drought | Low | 27.91 / yr | $181K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $185K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 3.16 / yr | $44K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $117 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Navarro County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Hurricane (5), Fire (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| November 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Navarro County?
Navarro County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Navarro County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $8M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Navarro County compare to other Texas counties?
Navarro County ranks #68 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Navarro County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Navarro County since 1965, most often 8 for severe storm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Navarro County's $27M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.