Dawson County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 39th
Dawson County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 38.7, 39th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Dawson County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 38.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 39th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 78.98 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 4.98 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $813K in expected annual loss and about 2.12 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Dawson County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Dawson County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including 4 for fire events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Dawson County ranks #149 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 78.98 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.98 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.12 / yr | $813K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.84 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $48K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.48 / yr | $929K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.74 / yr | $32K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 4.21 / yr | $105K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $15K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.46 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $15K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 47.46 / yr | $34K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $1 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Dawson County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1992, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Hurricane (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2010 | Hurricane | Hurricane Alex |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Dawson County?
Dawson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 38.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 39th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Dawson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $813K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Dawson County compare to other Texas counties?
Dawson County ranks #149 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Dawson County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Dawson County since 1992, most often 4 for fire events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Dawson County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.