Erath County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX

Low

Composite Risk Score

75.0

National percentile: 75th

Erath County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.0, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $34M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Erath County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 75.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 0.89 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.79 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $34M in expected annual loss for a population of 43K.

Beyond physical exposure, Erath County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Erath County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 4 for severe storm events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.

Among 254 Texas counties, Erath County ranks #69 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $34M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Medium Capacity to recover
Population 43K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $4M/yr
High $9M/yr
Medium $5M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Wildfire Medium 0.01 / yr$4M
Cold Wave High 0.89 / yr$9M
Tornado Medium 0.79 / yr$5M
Riverine Flood Low 1.14 / yr$14M
Lightning Medium 49.85 / yr$470K
Hail Low 6.59 / yr$505K
Drought Medium 57.67 / yr$391K
Heat Wave Low 9.53 / yr$550K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$138K
Strong Wind Medium 2.35 / yr$585K
Winter Weather Low 4.21 / yr$60K
Ice Storm Low 0.84 / yr$33K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$49K
Landslide Very Low 0.22 / yr$204
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Erath County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Fire (4), Hurricane (3).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storms
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storm
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2016FloodSevere Storms and Flooding
March 2016FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
May 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding
July 2011FireWildfires
March 2008FireWildfires
June 2007Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Erath County?

Erath County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Erath County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $4M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $9M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Erath County compare to other Texas counties?

Erath County ranks #69 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Erath County had?

FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Erath County since 1990, most often 4 for severe storm events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Erath County's $34M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.