Erath County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 75th
Erath County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.0, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $34M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Erath County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 75.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 0.89 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.79 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $34M in expected annual loss for a population of 43K.
Beyond physical exposure, Erath County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Erath County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 4 for severe storm events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Erath County ranks #69 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.89 / yr | $9M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.79 / yr | $5M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.14 / yr | $14M |
| Lightning | Medium | 49.85 / yr | $470K |
| Hail | Low | 6.59 / yr | $505K |
| Drought | Medium | 57.67 / yr | $391K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 9.53 / yr | $550K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $138K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.35 / yr | $585K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.21 / yr | $60K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.84 / yr | $33K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $49K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.22 / yr | $204 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Erath County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Fire (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Erath County?
Erath County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Erath County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $4M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $9M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Erath County compare to other Texas counties?
Erath County ranks #69 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Erath County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Erath County since 1990, most often 4 for severe storm events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Erath County's $34M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.