Grayson County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 80th
Grayson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 80.3, 80th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $43M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Grayson County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 80.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 80th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 8.54 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 0.88 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 15.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $43M in expected annual loss for a population of 135K.
Beyond physical exposure, Grayson County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Grayson County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1981, including 5 for severe storm events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Grayson County ranks #51 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 8.54 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | High | 0.88 / yr | $9M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 15.95 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.25 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $775K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.05 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.18 / yr | $19M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $662K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $3K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.95 / yr | $82K |
| Lightning | Low | 54.88 / yr | $291K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.99 / yr | $644K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $103K |
| Drought | Low | 28.10 / yr | $125K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Grayson County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1981, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Fire (4), Hurricane (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grayson County?
Grayson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 80.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 80th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Grayson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Tornado (High, $9M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Grayson County compare to other Texas counties?
Grayson County ranks #51 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Grayson County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Grayson County since 1981, most often 5 for severe storm events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grayson County's $43M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.