Motley County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 3th
Motley County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 3.2, 3th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Motley County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 3.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 3rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $729K in expected annual loss and about 88.95 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $299K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $245K in expected annual loss and about 5.26 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 1K.
Beyond physical exposure, Motley County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Motley County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1986, including 5 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Motley County ranks #239 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 88.95 / yr | $729K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $299K |
| Hail | Low | 5.26 / yr | $245K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $18K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 7.21 / yr | $10K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 2.10 / yr | $92K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.65 / yr | $100K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.79 / yr | $16K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.37 / yr | $66K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $6 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 49.09 / yr | $6K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $223K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Motley County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1986, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Severe Storm (4), Hurricane (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| February 2011 | Fire | Matador Fire |
| August 2010 | Hurricane | Hurricane Alex |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Motley County?
Motley County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 3.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 3th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Motley County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $729K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $299K EAL), Hail (Low, $245K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Motley County compare to other Texas counties?
Motley County ranks #239 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Motley County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Motley County since 1986, most often 5 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Motley County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.