McCulloch County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 10th
McCulloch County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 10.1, 10th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates McCulloch County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 10.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 10th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $859K in expected annual loss and about 55.99 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $128K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $232K in expected annual loss and about 4.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, McCulloch County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: McCulloch County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 5 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, McCulloch County ranks #215 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 55.99 / yr | $859K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $128K |
| Hail | Low | 4.01 / yr | $232K |
| Lightning | Low | 46.20 / yr | $135K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 3.84 / yr | $32K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 8.42 / yr | $126K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $11K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.41 / yr | $379K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.19 / yr | $118K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.79 / yr | $102K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $9 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McCulloch County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Flood (3), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McCulloch County?
McCulloch County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 10.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 10th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McCulloch County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $859K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $128K EAL), Hail (Low, $232K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McCulloch County compare to other Texas counties?
McCulloch County ranks #215 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McCulloch County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for McCulloch County since 1989, most often 5 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McCulloch County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.