Leon County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Leon County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 58.3, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Leon County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 58.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 58th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Leon County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 36.54 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.53 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $717K in expected annual loss and about 0.05 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Leon County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Leon County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 6 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Leon County ranks #115 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 36.54 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.53 / yr | $5M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $717K |
| Lightning | Medium | 58.95 / yr | $313K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.57 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $54K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 15.26 / yr | $277K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.96 / yr | $368K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.92 / yr | $45K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.79 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $460 |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.69 / yr | $88K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 2.63 / yr | $20K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Leon County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Severe Storm (5), Fire (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Leon County?
Leon County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 58.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Leon County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $3M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $5M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $717K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Leon County compare to other Texas counties?
Leon County ranks #115 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Leon County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Leon County since 1965, most often 6 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Leon County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.