Fayette County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Fayette County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 58.0, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $17M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Fayette County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 58.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 58th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $549K in expected annual loss and about 50.17 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.52 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $17M in expected annual loss for a population of 24K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fayette County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Fayette County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for flood events and 6 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Fayette County ranks #117 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.07 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 50.17 / yr | $549K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.52 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.42 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 2.37 / yr | $403K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.25 / yr | $9M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.05 / yr | $471K |
| Lightning | Low | 56.00 / yr | $235K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $40K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.25 / yr | $464K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 2.37 / yr | $44K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.75 / yr | $49K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $251 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $29K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fayette County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Fire (6), Hurricane (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fayette County?
Fayette County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 58.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fayette County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $549K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fayette County compare to other Texas counties?
Fayette County ranks #117 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fayette County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Fayette County since 1972, most often 6 for flood events and 6 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fayette County's $17M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.