Karnes County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Karnes County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 58.4, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Karnes County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 58.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 58th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Karnes County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $811K in expected annual loss and about 65.11 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.10 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $428K in expected annual loss and about 2.07 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, Karnes County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Karnes County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 6 for hurricane events and 2 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Karnes County ranks #114 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 65.11 / yr | $811K |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.10 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.07 / yr | $428K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.64 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.89 / yr | $381K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.30 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $47K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.42 / yr | $495K |
| Lightning | Low | 48.93 / yr | $107K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.92 / yr | $158K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 1.63 / yr | $15K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.26 / yr | $16K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $20 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Karnes County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Severe Ice Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Karnes County?
Karnes County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 58.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Karnes County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $811K EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $2M EAL), Hail (Medium, $428K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Karnes County compare to other Texas counties?
Karnes County ranks #114 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Karnes County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Karnes County since 1967, most often 6 for hurricane events and 2 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Karnes County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.