Lavaca County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 79th
Lavaca County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.9, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $34M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lavaca County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 78.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 79th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.42 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $23M in expected annual loss and about 3.61 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.10 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $34M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lavaca County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Lavaca County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 8 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Lavaca County ranks #57 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.42 / yr | $5M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.61 / yr | $23M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.10 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | Medium | 57.57 / yr | $501K |
| Drought | Medium | 54.29 / yr | $356K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.11 / yr | $388K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.47 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 1.69 / yr | $146K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $18K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 1.74 / yr | $23K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.44 / yr | $21K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.90 / yr | $209K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $15K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $26 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lavaca County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Flood (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| August 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Gustav |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lavaca County?
Lavaca County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lavaca County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $23M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lavaca County compare to other Texas counties?
Lavaca County ranks #57 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lavaca County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Lavaca County since 1967, most often 8 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lavaca County's $34M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.