Grimes County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 57th
Grimes County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 57.0, 57th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Grimes County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 57.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 57th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 26.38 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.10 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 29K.
Beyond physical exposure, Grimes County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Grimes County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 7 for hurricane events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Grimes County ranks #120 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 26.38 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.10 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.95 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | Medium | 65.30 / yr | $492K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.53 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $60K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.79 / yr | $405K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.96 / yr | $91K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.58 / yr | $297K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.29 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.42 / yr | $89K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $21K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 2.26 / yr | $8K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $33 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Grimes County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (7), Flood (6), Fire (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grimes County?
Grimes County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 57.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 57th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Grimes County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Grimes County compare to other Texas counties?
Grimes County ranks #120 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Grimes County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Grimes County since 1993, most often 7 for hurricane events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grimes County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.