Gaines County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Gaines County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 57.6, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Gaines County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 57.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 58th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.91 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 82.77 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 22K.
Beyond physical exposure, Gaines County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Gaines County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including 3 for severe ice storm events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Gaines County ranks #119 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 3.91 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | High | 82.77 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.84 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.65 / yr | $776K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.53 / yr | $62K |
| Lightning | Low | 45.51 / yr | $139K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.89 / yr | $212K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.38 / yr | $42K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.65 / yr | $651K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $18K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.89 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $3 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Gaines County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1992, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Ice Storm (3), Severe Storm (3), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Gaines County?
Gaines County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 57.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Gaines County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $2M EAL), Drought (High, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Gaines County compare to other Texas counties?
Gaines County ranks #119 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Gaines County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Gaines County since 1992, most often 3 for severe ice storm events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Gaines County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.