Frio County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 56th
Frio County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 55.9, 56th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Frio County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 55.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 56th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 91.46 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 10.16 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 18K.
Beyond physical exposure, Frio County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Frio County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 4 for hurricane events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Frio County ranks #122 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 91.46 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.16 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.37 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $150K |
| Hail | Medium | 1.82 / yr | $386K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $395K |
| Lightning | Low | 39.86 / yr | $160K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.23 / yr | $789K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.50 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.10 / yr | $31K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 1.26 / yr | $20K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.56 / yr | $132K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $8 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Frio County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (4), Fire (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Frio County?
Frio County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 55.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 56th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Frio County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Frio County compare to other Texas counties?
Frio County ranks #122 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Frio County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Frio County since 1990, most often 4 for hurricane events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Frio County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.