Caldwell County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 80th
Caldwell County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 79.8, 80th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $33M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Caldwell County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 79.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 80th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Caldwell County's expected losses come from riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 2.64 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.27 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 68.68 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $33M in expected annual loss for a population of 46K.
Beyond physical exposure, Caldwell County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Caldwell County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for fire events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Caldwell County ranks #53 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.64 / yr | $24M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.27 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 68.68 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.40 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.27 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.68 / yr | $882K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $120K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 3.05 / yr | $94K |
| Lightning | Medium | 50.66 / yr | $311K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $172K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.63 / yr | $898K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.57 / yr | $45K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $21K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $48 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Caldwell County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (6), Flood (5), Hurricane (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| November 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| December 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Caldwell County?
Caldwell County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 79.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 80th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Caldwell County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $24M EAL), Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Caldwell County compare to other Texas counties?
Caldwell County ranks #53 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Caldwell County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Caldwell County since 1972, most often 6 for fire events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Caldwell County's $33M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.